Avoiding the misgovernance trap: the tests for Bangladesh’s new ruling National Party

On February 12, Bangladesh held its first credible parliamentary election since 2008, and the first since the fall of the previous Awami League regime in August 2024. The result was a landslide victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which gained more than two-thirds of the seats in parliament. This means that the next Prime Minister will be Tarique Rahman, the son of former President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. The electoral victory caps a remarkable turnaround in fortunes for Mr. Rahman, who spent the last 17 years in exile in the UK.

The election pitted the historically centre-right BNP against a coalition of the Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat) – the country’s largest Islamist party – and the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP). With the Awami League banned, this was Jamaat’s best-ever election result. It secured 68 (77 when including its allies) of the 299 contested seats in parliament, compared to its previous highest of 18 seats in 1991. Nonetheless, Jamaat’s comprehensive defeat in what was effectively a two-horse race was a clear rejection of its religion-based political platform and a reaffirmation of Bangladesh’s moderate Islamic traditions.

While the two-thirds majority gives the BNP a substantial mandate, it nonetheless faces several important challenges. The election included a referendum on major constitutional reforms, including a two-term limit for the Prime Minister and making the legislature a bicameral system with an upper and lower house. The proposed reforms were ratified by a 68 percent vote in favour. Given the large number of reforms included as part of the referendum, it will be difficult for the incoming BNP government to implement all of these measures. Which of these reforms the BNP chooses to implement and its success in adhering to the spirit of the proposed reforms, will be a key flashpoint during its term.

The new BNP government also faces significant challenges on the economic front. While the interim government was successful in improving macroeconomic stability and stopping some of the worst excesses in the banking system, investment and growth in Bangladesh have been lagging. Some of this is, of course, the natural result of investors being reluctant to commit to long-term investments while an interim government is in place. So, investment should naturally improve now that there is an elected government. Nonetheless, continuing the reforms of the banking sector and improving infrastructure are some key areas where the BNP will need to focus on during its term.

The BNP also faces the challenge of managing the growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, particularly among the youth. The close association between New Delhi and the previous Awami League government has made the former a target of ire in Bangladesh. This anti-India sentiment has been needlessly exacerbated by misinformation by sections of the Indian media. Nonetheless, an antagonistic attitude toward a large neighbour with whom Bangladesh shares 75 percent of its border is not practical. Thus, the BNP must now rebuild the country’s relationship with New Delhi while managing the anti-India sentiment at home.

There also is the not-so-small matter of walking a diplomatic tightrope between Beijing and Washington. This has been made more complicated by a trade agreement signed by the interim government with the US just before the elections, which is designed to discourage agreements between Bangladesh and third countries that “undermine US interests”.

The BNP soon must also determine the role of the Awami League in Bangladesh’s electoral politics. An interesting footnote regarding the election is the lower-than-expected voter turnout of around 60 percent. While the voting was conducted with much enthusiasm and fanfare, the turnout was considerably lower than the 75-87 percent turnout in past competitive elections in 1996, 2003, and 2008. The relatively lower turnout likely reflects the strong latent support that the Awami League, which was prevented from participating in this election, still enjoys in Bangladesh.

One of the key factors that contributed to the downfall of the Awami League government was growing corruption and misgovernance during its 16-year reign. BNP has now inherited the same set of institutions and laws that provided the Awami League with unchecked power. In other words, there are no new structural checks and balances in place to stop the BNP from falling into the same corruption and misgovernance trap. One must not forget that the last BNP government (2001-2006) was also plagued by allegations of corruption and political violence.

A potential silver lining for the BNP is the apparent reformation of Tarique Rahman. He has conducted himself admirably during the election campaign and has consistently taken a conciliatory and unifying approach towards rivals. Continuing this approach and ensuring the same level of discipline and restraint among his party members will perhaps be his greatest challenge.

Reshad Ahsan is an Associate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Melbourne.